On today's Yougov poll and the predicament of the Anglo-Scottish Union

The Yougov poll today about the Union.

1. Concern about yougov poll, and oversoon elation from terrified British nationalists. Poll shows a rise in support for independence, asks if vote were held tomorrow (we know Scots want to wait until they know what Brexit means and any deal on the table for Scotland from the EU is available as a counterpoint), excludes 16-18yos, does not have a correct % of EU nationals, and is weighted on the EU referendum (where we know embarassed LEAVE voters claim they voted REMAIN). Poll shows SNP voters are most likely to change views against independence if it's UK vs EU. Petulent essentialist nationalism that will collapse in a campaign, when independence is on the table. Nonetheless poll shows a rise in support for independence, before a campaign has begun.

2. Until Brexit the logic of strategists was that the SNP could not afford to lose a second independence referendum as it would risk killing the issue for a goodly while. This was broadly true, but only in the context of the life of a Westminster 'long regime' type of government. The issue can never go away completely while Scotland exists, and never has. But this logic is now dead. Were Scots to vote NO in a year's time, it would not be by an enhanced NO, and it would continue to tear lumps out of remaining institutions which support the Anglo-Scottish Union. It would also likely be on a false prospectus of the UK offering continuity and stability in uncertain times. Five to ten years of post Brexit collapse of England's empire, and the knock on effects of this, plus demographic change (the children of YES voter millenials getting a vote, less entrenched baby boomer British nationalists about) would surely trigger the world's biggest 'I told you so,' particularly as the Tories stay in power and England moves to the right, and people discover what having your citizenship and rights ripped up and economy destroyed by a foreign vote actually means for them.

3. Thirdly and most fundamentally of all, the vote on the 23rd of June to destroy England's empire in a last gasp of xenophobic exceptionalism killed the empirical basis of the Anglo-Scottish Union. The impact of the EU vote was never fundamentally about public opinion. It was about elite opinion. The Anglo-Scottish Union is not a British nationalist project. It is an alliance of ruling classes. For the Scottish ruling class the Anglo-Scottish Union delivers (A) continued liberal government, despite working class and labour aristocrat Scots' utter hatred of liberalism. (B) It opens up financial markets thruout the empire, which latterly was buttressed by being the USA's man in the EU (and the various alliances, networks, and markets this afforded). (C) It provides a chance for ruling class Scots and Scots on the make to control the reins of power not just in a small Nordic country, but in a global superpower. By dint of England's successful xenophobic collectivist rebellion, they demonstrated that the era of Union with England guaranteeing liberalism (A) is over. The geo-political effect of this is to isolate England, to fillet its empire, and to cause an unprecedented loss of markets, so that's point (B) over. Plus, with England now effectively in an utterly desperate battle to just stand still as a power, with its economy contracting vis-a-vis the other European empires (and this is before the filleting of Brexit is done and by), does London rule really guarantee a career ladder into a superpower (C), more than being a special daughter of Germany? Obviously our ruling class is integrated into London power networks, but there is widespread talk (even among men such as the Director of Virgin Money) of rapid disintegration being in the best interests of Scottish finance capital for instance. None of this will affect Scottish public opinion, but it is the empirical class basis of the Anglo-Scottish Union, which is now completely dead, unless some British nationalist Bismarck or Napoleon can reforge and repurpose this ruling class deal. Theresa May is not that person.